In the wake of last week's debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, betting markets and polling have shown a notable shift in favor of Harris as the 2024 presidential race heats up.
According to Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform, both candidates were tied at 49% likelihood of winning immediately after the debate. However, in the days following, the odds slightly shifted, giving Harris a 52% chance of winning compared to Trump's 47% as of Thursday morning.
This change, while significant, represents a smaller swing than seen in Trump's previous debate performances in 2016 and 2020. Harris’s probability of winning has fluctuated as much as eight percentage points over the past week, indicating a more muted reaction from bettors this time around.
Trump has expressed reluctance to participate in any further debates, stating on Truth Social, "there will be no third debate!" However, a vice presidential debate is scheduled for October 1, and bettors currently estimate a 30% chance of a second Harris-Trump debate occurring.
Historically, first debates have had the most substantial impact on polling and betting odds. Current polling averages compiled by Real Clear Politics have shown a slight increase in Harris's favor, while Trump's numbers have remained relatively stable.
Despite this recent momentum for Harris, Trump still maintains a competitive position. The gap in betting odds is smaller than what he has faced in previous presidential runs, where he was often at a disadvantage. For context, during the 2016 election, betting markets had Hillary Clinton with an 81% chance of winning on Election Day, a prediction that ultimately fell short.
Additionally, it is important to note that Trump's odds saw a significant boost to 71% following a foiled assassination attempt before the Republican National Convention, marking the highest levels recorded on Polymarket or Betfair. However, his odds have remained largely unchanged in the wake of a recent incident while he was golfing in West Palm Beach, Florida.
As the 2024 election approaches, both candidates will need to navigate a rapidly changing landscape, with bettors and voters alike keeping a close watch on developments in the race.
